Duncan Dee: Canada failing as a host for residents and newcomers

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When guests are invited, good hosts generally like to be well-prepared. For dinner guests, that often means ensuring there’s a good meal and that there is enough for everyone. For guests spending the night, a good host often tries to ensure there’s a spare bedroom, bed or at least somewhere comfortable for their guest to sleep. For longer term guests, the effort usually goes further because few of us want guests to feel unwelcome nor do we want those who live with us to feel inconvenienced.

On December 19, Statistics Canada issued its quarterly population estimates. For the quarter ending on September 30, StatsCan reported Canada’s population had risen to 40,528,396. For the three months from July to September, Canada added 430,635 new residents, an increase of 1.1 per cent from the previous quarter. From January to September last year, Canada added 1,030,378 new residents, mostly from immigration.

To put the numbers into perspective, in just nine months, the federal government, which is exclusively responsible for immigration, added the equivalent of almost the entire population of Nova Scotia. On average, more than 3,500 new residents arrived each day. New residents, not all of them permanent, who will need somewhere to sleep, somewhere to work or study and, likely, a doctor to see them if and when they fall ill.

Knowing Canada has thousands of federal bureaucrats responsible for the country’s immigration system, it shouldn’t be too much for Canadians to expect the same people who approved the arrival of these newcomers would also ensure, like any good host, the communities would have the necessary resources to welcome them.

At a time when Canadians across the country are experiencing immense pressures with housing; when, in a survey conducted by the Angus Reid Institute for the Canadian Medical Association, fully half of Canadians reported they either didn’t have a family doctor or had to fight to obtain an appointment even when they had one, it is shocking the federal government does little, if anything, to adequately prepare.

Canada has generally avoided the highly charged debates about population growth and immigration more common in the United States and Europe. For decades, the Canadian consensus on immigration has generally been a positive one: most Canadians consider immigration to be a contributor to the country. Unlike many Americans and Europeans, most Canadians welcome new immigrants with open arms.

But over the past few months, concerns have started to be raised about the pace and rate of immigration and the impact they are having. None other than the Bank of Canada has made the link between high immigration levels and the housing crisis.

When newcomer arrivals picked up sharply in early 2022, that steady decline in the vacancy rate became a cliff. Canada’s vacancy rate has now reached a historical low.

Toni Gravelle

At a speech in early December and widely reported in the news media, the Bank’s Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle said: “When newcomer arrivals picked up sharply in early 2022, that steady decline in the vacancy rate became a cliff. Canada’s vacancy rate has now reached a historical low.”

Those comments were followed by those of Governor Tiff Macklem who said: “Canada’s housing supply has not kept up with growth in our population, and higher rates of immigration are widening the gap.”

A senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, Robert Kavcic, who in a note to clients and reported by the National Post, echoed those concerns and said: “In no version of reality can housing supply respond to an almost overnight tripling in the run rate of new bodies… we’d need more than 170,000 new units every three months at this rate of population growth … right now, the industry is working all-out to complete 220,000 in a full year.”

And that’s just housing.

Over the past few weeks, hospitals across the country requested Canadians refrain from visiting hospital emergency rooms. In New Brunswick, both the Vitalité and Horizon health networks have asked residents to only visit emergency rooms when absolutely necessary, warning of extended waits otherwise. Fredericton ER physician, Dr. Yogi Sehgal, posted a message on Facebook describing the Doctor Everett Chalmers ER as “jammed up” and warned residents “while we are trying to see those that are immediately life-or limb-threatening, almost everyone else will likely not get seen until the morning. Almost all of the region’s ambulances are in our back hallway, and we are currently at 360 per cent capacity right now, with patients having to be doubled up in rooms designed for one person.”

And the pressures aren’t just being felt at ERs. On Boxing Day, data released by researchers at SecondStreet.org reported that at least 3.1 million Canadians languished on waitlists for surgery, diagnostic scans or for an appointment with a specialist. SecondStreet.org noted since not all provinces provided complete data, the total number of Canadians waiting for care is likely closer to 5.1 million. In New Brunswick alone, 25,351 await surgeries.

Newcomers are not to blame for Canada’s housing and healthcare crunches. Few arrive expecting not to be able to find affordable housing or a doctor when they need one. New residents are therefore as much victims of these problems as Canadians are. But when shortages like these reach the crisis levels that they clearly have, policymakers are obligated to look at all the factors impacting demand. That must include a look at whether Canada can continue its current pace of welcoming such large numbers of new residents and whether these shortages risk putting Canada’s longstanding, positive national consensus on immigration in peril.

Duncan Dee is a former chief operating officer at Air Canada and a member of the panel appointed to review the Canada Transportation Act in 2016. A Brunswick News columnist, he resides in Grand-Barachois.